Kyle Lahnakoski

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    Here are some of my predictions. I write them down so I can review how wrong I was.

    Predictions for the Future

    Prediction

    Year

    Critics are Saying

    Home server replaces web apps

    The home server (much more than the garbage that exists now) will be realized because of three inevitable truths

    1. Free software will provide the same functionality for free
    2. Redundant, failsafe, hardware will be cheaper than monthly service fees
    3. Local network is faster than connection to net
    4. Owned machines are better trusted, both for reliability and privacy.
    2007 Nothing, the collective tech community has tunnel vision for only web apps.
    Langauges have built in support for transactions and versioning

    The problem of using multiprocessor cores will not be solved with threads, semaphores and mutexes, it will be solved with actors and transactions, on top of a versioning system..

    1. The use of transactions and versions is neccesary to optimize the inherently serial processes.
    2. The use of actors hides the thread pooling and synchronization issues with obviously paralellizable code.
    2003 No need for the complicated syntax, what we have is just fine

    Inherent serial dependencies do not exist: All important tasks can paralelized instead of optimized.

    Past Predictions

    Prediction

    Year

    Critics Said

    Realized As

    Applications on the Web

    Edit your documents, and spreadsheets on the web, so that any machine can act as your desktop.

    1997 Web is too unreliable Web 2.0 is almost here. But document editing on the web is not popular yet
    Set Operations built into languages 1999 No need for the complicated syntax, loops work just fine LINQ, JavaFX
kyle@lahnakoski.com